Is Waffles the next WSOP champ?

Amazingly poor showing on my part yesterday on just about every front of poker (heh: of course I mean NLHE) you could think to play. Yet I still went to bed (around 2AM I think) in an excellent mood. The reason?

Our boy Waffles.

He made a great run at the 25k finishing 33rd out of the 1300+. Very entertaining stuff, and I thought he played it great. It was fascinating to rail the 25k for a change (I busted way, way early as just part of a juggernaut of terrible moves I will detail shortly) and it brought home for me just how much has to be working in your favour to final table the damn thing.

It also got me thinking a little bit about observation bias.

When Waffles hit 1000/2000 + antes his 23k stack suddenly looked more vulnerable, and the wiggle room had predictably begun to shrink. I was sitting there thinking what would I do here? He was in position in the CO-1 and the blinds were short enough that they would be risking their tournament life to call him. It looked ideal for an open push, with four to act.

But it can be tricky business when you’re in IM chat with your friends while they and/or you MTT. Since a good chunk of your run will come down deciding if you like your weak, suited Ace or mid-pocket pair enough to risk your tournament life with them, I rarely ask anyone what they would do. In those situations I often don’t even discuss my holding until it’s done. My rationale is that those decisions are sometimes so tough that I want to be solely responsible for them, good or bad [to reiterate, yesterday bad…bad bad bad]. The other dimension to this is that the few times I have asked an opinion (Jo and Don come to mind) and not listened to it, it has made me nuts for a few hands when their prediction came to fruition. It detunes my radio and has me rethinking my reads. So it’s tough. And now I see how tough it is for observers to even venture opinions; knowing if they’re wrong they would be contributing to the demise of a thing rare and promising.

What also struck me is how tough it is to decide to pull a move with a bunch of people watching. If it works, great. If not, you will look like an idiot. The other day someone jokingly mentioned “Iak always gets it in good”. That made me laugh, because as we all have seen on a weekly basis, I am more than willing to get it in bad if one of two things is in play: 1) I think I’m getting it in good based on my read 2) Getting it in bad is better than not getting it in at all. Number two is what I have been experimenting with more and more, but it’s an adjustment that’s been riddled with very donkish looking exits as I try to learn just how bad is acceptable. A work in progress is often the most interesting the work ever gets.

So these things were running through my head as it folded over to Waffles: Would I want an outside opinion here? What if he does what I recommend and it blows up in his face? What if he doesn’t do what I recommend and it turned out to have been right? Is Waffles not making more moves because we are watching and he doesn’t want to exit without getting his money in good? I am thinking not of Waffles here, but myself specifically. I once had a run in the 25k earlier this summer where Don and JJ were practically pleading with me to push as my stack eroded, but I hadn’t learned enough about odds and M to understand I was well into ATC range. I busted in the 60’s I think, and that was the first time I realized I was going to have to retool and change the way I play if I wanted results like Hoy and smokkee.

And that’s not to say I thought Waffles didn’t make enough moves. He stole when he had too and played tenaciously in position. He also got it in very good against two stacks with AK (vs. AJ and 68o) and got screwed by the board. I can’t say it enough, that was a great run, and you shoulda been final table bound.

So how did the hand in question end? I bit the bullet and typed in my rec to steal the blinds. Almost simultanenously Waffles folded and the CO bigstack pushed. Both blinds folded. “Knew It” I typed…then the CO showed JJ.

Oops.

My bad. Good thing Waffles pays no attention to me anyway.

So here’s to our boy for a great run. I predict bettah in the near future.

Mmmmmmm? Oh the recap of my vicious night for you sadists? Why not?

MTTs:
cc’s – 77 – JJ (frustration – dealt 5 pocket pairs in about two orbits, won one hand)
The Not – can’t even remember but think it was pairs again (by this point I no longer care)
25k – overs and flush draw no goot
FTOPS Event 4: this one hurt – I played a good game and was 11th with 12 left and five seats, but one doubleup from being right in the thick of things. Stopped concentrating while chatting in IM actually, and misread the dude’s push. I had 55 and thought I had him covered by a mile. This is 6 max, but even there it’s a loose call. 88 and I am crippled. I push a flop with QKo and Q flush draw. Called by low pair with A flush draw. Flush hits and that‘s that. I am pretty sure I will win a seat, these don’t seem that hard.
Cash: 100NL – total negative for the day was just shy of 100 bucks over three micro sessions. Yeah I had a lot of background noise last night, but I was too tired to be playing anything. And I didn’t listen to myself.

Thus our hero blows about 200 bucks in buy-ins and Tight/Weak calldowns. Shameful. The truth is I don't think there was a single bad beat in the entire run. Just poor play.

Oh well, tonight will be different. I’ve had a nap. If you want to play with me, I will definitely be in that Event 4 sat at 11pm. As Blinders rightly noted, “EASY MONEY”

Ia4ka4ris