Invitational Redux...aka how to make your draw and not live to enjoy it...aka Help me Work the Numbers [Station]
I finished 5th in MATH yesterday specifically because of two hands I accidentally priced myself into but could afford to lose. I won both, but would have been cool losing both as well. Similarly, I was running well in WWdN again until I was dumb enough to think a flopped set would be good even one of two times on Stars [payback is a bitch as my hand against Wil illustrates nicely]. I then lost pair over pair twice (as the over both times) and then tried a resteal shove with 33 against the button only to bust when called by TT without improvements. So yeah, I took Wil out in a strange way, but overall not unhappy with my play - getting it all in early once as a race and the other times way, way ahead (and covering them by a mile) only to have Pokerstars remind it is a verb as much as a noun. My bounce with the 3s I don't mind either - supershorty survival mode and I like TT's call of course too.
Also had a pretty good run at the 9k at 6pm on FT - 64th of 540ish. Chad was there, but don't think he saw me. Kitty was running great until an untimely exit. I had a huge stack which was crippled when I lost three races in two orbits and by goes me. I am not sure why I take losses at FT so much better than I do on Stars, but it reinforces for me how much perception dictates reality. I bounce on weird beats or lost races on FT and I don't even blink, just look for the next thing to play. On Stars it haunts me. Yet smokkee feels exactly the opposite way. We can't both be right, but we can both be wrong.
So on I go...
I think this hand is worth getting some thoughts on - yeah Hoy, including "You Donkey!" That would be fine too.
I am SB, Wil in position is BB. Folded around to me. Can't remember the level but it was early 50/100 I believe.
I find the Bloody Sasquatch: 34h. Yeah I just made that nickname up right here on the spot. I dedicate it to Eric, who I know loves a good hand nickname. Feel free to spread that one around, I know I'll be dropping it in conversation at every cocktail party I go to for the next month or so.
I 3X it figuring I'll make a play post-flop if the board looks scary. Wil smooth calls. [Pretty sure about this - if I am wrong correct me. Without tracker, I am at the mercy of my recollection which is notorious for focusing on my brilliance, bonhomie and all-round exemplification of all things wondrous, but sometimes to the exclusion of important details like facts.]
Next part of the story goes Jh6h3x.
It's on me with a baby flush draw and bottom pair. So this was my reasoning and I'd truly like your opinions on this analysis and my play. I know I took a while working this out so I am not just saying "here's what I thought" after the fact. This is more-or-less how the debate went: Here is an opportunity to race for the all elusive early big stack.
I did the odds here later, but you know how it is, by now we have a decent guess at most of these numbers anyway.
My guess as to Wil's range in the BB calling just 2x more to see the flop -
AK-AT, 22-AA (although I would really have expected a reraise with JJ-AA, I know Wil can get tricky and he knows I am trying a more aggro style these days, so he might have been willing to let me bet out of position on the flop), 89s-KQs. I ruled out the Hammah cause he didn't reraise preflop. This seems pretty reasonable in retrospect too.
Pot is something like 600. I bet nearly the pot trying to disguise my draw. Wil types in the chat: "you're full of bs." nice read indeed.
He Reverse Hoy's me - and he almost has me covered, so this is it. Normally I don't fuck around with a Hoy unless I am holding the stone cold nuts. I've been schooled a lot on the mystic powers of the Hoy and I don't play that way any longer. But this was actually exactly what I wanted.
If he's ready to die on this hand, it just screams overpair to me...but QQ, KK, AA should have reraised. 88,99,TT all seem likely here. I thought 77 or JJ are possible, but that's pretty much the worst of it: 2 hands where I'll jump in at 70/30. Holding a 3 I am not giving him credit for 33 there. I am also not giving him credit for two hearts with me holding two. One maybe, but not two.
So where does that leave us? Probably an overpair which is a true 50/50 to my holding. If he's got one heart it's just slightly better. If he's overplayed AK-AQ - very unlikely given what I know about his game and what he knows about mine he's dead to 80/20 - unless its AK/Qh which would be 50/50, but I already said I wasn't gonna give him credit for two hearts.
So basically I thought it as likely he was betting the killer sets as he was betting like a moron with AK/AQo. As in very mothafuckin unlikely. Potential sin that, but not one of omission. That left hands that I was a true race against given my baby flush and bottom pair.
No way did I think I was getting in way ahead. But I did think I was getting exactly what I wanted. 50/50 (almost) for a big early stack.
What did I get instead?
JJ for top set. 70 Wil v. 30 moi. nice read on my part no?
'Course I turned the flush to put a nail in our boy's coffin. I think to the table it looked like I called a push on a flush draw, without them noticing I had a pair too giving me 6 more all-important outs against an overpair. Against top set of course they were useless.
So like I said it prolly looked very donkish in real time to people, but I was personally ok with my approach to that hand and best of all have really stopped caring How Things Look.
But what I DO care about is: does this move make sense? I think by the numbers it works out okay (I got better than 2:1 on a coinflip) and it fit the bill for my strategy (favoring a race for the early stack). But I allow I could be way, way off on this one. If I am - be a pal and enlighten. I may not listen, but I am still interested.
Penultimately I will note that the icing was the back-to-back naming rights. Tell me that's a first.
Postpenultimately I should note how karma came round. My next flopped set was killed by a river straight on a pair(77 me)-over-pair (33), which is a MUCH worse pokerstarsing I think everyone will agree. And that was just the beginning of my downward spiral with pairs I got too above.
And ultimately, I have officially given up the belief I will ever win WWdN. The site has told me for a year it ain't gonna happen and today I have gotten the message.
Yeah, yeah... I will still keep trying.
Man's reach must excede his grasp; else what's a Heaven for?